Kestrel Grid

Board pre-read for Thursday 15 October 2026

Q3 2026 board update

From Hana Lindqvist, CEO, and Marcus Bell, CFO. Confidential to the board.

Three resolutions need your vote: a second inverter supplier, a bridge backstop and the Series B timeline. Go to the decisions

Hollis Market, Austin, on Tuesday 22 September. The battery took 212 kW off the 5 pm peak. Demand charges are set by the busiest 15 minutes of the month, so that hour is where customers save.

Where we stood on 30 September

Point at or tap a trend line to read each month

A note from Hana

Dear all,

Q3 was our best quarter for the business we have and our weakest for the business we promised. Revenue grew 15% on Q2 to $1.45M, and gross margin averaged 40.8%, the first quarter above 40%. But we brought 19 sites live against a plan of 30. Eleven stores are installed and wired, waiting for inverters our only supplier has now delayed twice.

That one dependency runs through this pack. It cost us $51k of revenue against plan this quarter, it is the top risk, and two of the three resolutions are about making sure it can't set our timeline again.

The rest of the news is good. Customers stay and add services: sites we installed in the first half of 2024 now pay 121% of what they paid in their first year. Cold storage grew from a quarter of revenue in January to a third in September, faster than we planned, because the savings are larger and the sales cycle is shorter. We will lean into it.

I'd like to spend most of our time on the 15th on inverter supply and the Series B timeline. Marcus and I are free before then if you want to go through the numbers.

HanaHana Lindqvist, chief executive

Revenue against plan

Q3 revenue was $1.45M, 97% of plan. The eleven sites waiting on inverters account for most of the $51k gap. Year to date we're at 99% of plan.

View the monthly numbers

Pipeline by stage

$16.4M of annual revenue is in play across 393 sites. Weighted by stage it's $4.37M, which covers the 2027 plan's $3.9M of new ARR with a little room. Select a stage to see the largest deals in it.

In the stageWeighted by win rate

Cash and runway

We ended September with $14.2M in the bank. At Q3's average net burn of $1.01M a month, that's 14 months. Switch scenarios to see how the inverter delays and a bridge would change it.

ActualProjectedOther scenarios

Runway

14.1months

Cash lasts to the end of November 2027

$14.2M cash ÷ $1.01M net burn a month

Net burn a month
$1.01M
Runway when the Series B process starts in January
11.1 months

View the cash projection by month

Hiring plan

We made three of the five hires planned for Q3. We're 41 people today and plan to be 46 by the end of the year. We've paused one sales role until the second inverter supplier is live.

RoleTeamPlanned startStatus

Top risks

Four risks we're watching, ordered by how much they could move the plan. The first two are why we're bringing resolutions 1 and 2.

Decisions we need from the board

Mark each resolution as you read. Your marks and notes stay on this page in your browser and aren't sent to anyone unless you email them.

Nothing marked yet. Start with resolution 1.

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Appendix

Supporting detail for the numbers above. Open a section to read it; everything prints expanded.

Unit economics of a typical site

500 kWh system, Q3 averages

Installed cost, financed by our project facility

Battery modules and enclosure$128,000
Inverter and switchgear$38,000
Installation and grid connection$48,000
Installed cost$214,000

Hardware sits in a $40M project facility, so it isn't in our net burn. Revenue less maintenance pays back the installed cost in 64 months; systems are warranted for 12 years.

Each month, per site

Revenue: subscription $2,400 and grid services $1,150$3,550
Hardware depreciation over 12 years−$1,486
Facility interest−$410
Monitoring and maintenance−$200
Gross profit, 41%$1,454

The customer saves $4,900 a month in demand charges on average and pays us $2,400, so they keep about $2 for every $1 they spend with us.

Customer cohorts

Sites grouped by when they went live
Went liveInstalledLive todayARR todayARR per siteRevenue retention

Revenue retention compares a cohort's revenue today with its first full year. It rises as we add grid services to older sites. The one site we lost from the second half of 2024 was a store that closed. Cohorts younger than a year don't have a retention figure yet.

How we define the numbers

ARR, net burn, runway and dispatch
Annual recurring revenue (ARR)
September's recurring revenue multiplied by 12. It includes customer subscriptions and our share of grid-services income.
Net burn
Operating cash out minus cash in. Battery hardware is financed by the project facility and is excluded.
Runway
Cash at month end divided by the average monthly net burn over the latest quarter.
Energy dispatched
Energy our batteries discharged at customer sites, in megawatt-hours, whether to shave a peak or answer a grid event.