Northpaw

Q3 review

Performance marketing for Hearth & Field

9 October 2026Results and the Q4 plan

Leila HaddadClient partner

Tom OkaforPaid social lead

Sana IqbalAnalytics lead

Q3 at a glance

Revenue grew 31% on last year, and each new customer cost $7 less to win.

Online revenue

$4.82M

31% on Q3 2025

Q3 2025: $3.68M

New customers

18,420

24% on Q3 2025

Q3 2025: 14,850

Blended acquisition cost (CAC)

$66

$7 lower, better

Q3 2025: $73

Return on ad spend (ROAS)

2.65

0.27 on Q3 2025

Q3 2025: 2.38

Orders

25,910

25% on Q3 2025

Q3 2025: 20,670

Average order

$186

$8 on Q3 2025

Q3 2025: $178

Paid media spend was $1.21M, up 11%. Email, SMS and direct visits brought in a third of revenue with no media cost.

Revenue by channel

Weekly revenue for Q3, by the channel that drove the visit. Select a channel to see it on its own.

What worked

Three changes did most of the work this quarter.

Creator videos of real bedrooms

$58cost per order, down from $73

Twelve customers filmed their own beds after 40 washes. Unpolished outperformed our studio shoots in every audience.

A shopping feed that says what the fabric is

2.62shopping ROAS, up from 2.1 in Q2

On 14 July we rewrote 340 product titles to lead with fabric, weight and size, the way people actually search.

A care guide after the first order

19.4%reorder within two months, up from 16.9% in June

A three-email flow on washing linen, ending with fitted sheets. It added $118k of repeat revenue in eleven weeks.

What didn't work

Three misses, what they cost, and what we've changed so they don't happen again.

0.9 ROAS$64k on four large creators

Paying big home accounts for posts

Four sponsored posts from accounts with 400k to 1.2M followers brought 212 orders. Their audiences liked the photos and didn't buy.

What we changedThat money now pays for customer-creator videos like the twelve on the last slide, which we run as ads where we control targeting.

1.4 ROAS$46k in the first three weeks

Launching wool throws in a heatwave

The throw campaign went live on 4 August, the hottest week of the year in most of your top states. We should have held it.

What we changedLaunches now check a 10-day forecast. Throws relaunch on 19 October with a cold-weather trigger by region.

−$21 AOVduring the sale extension

Extending the Labor Day sale by a week

The extra week pulled forward demand: average order fell from $191 to $170, and full-price sales the week after were down 18%.

What we changedSales end on the date we announce. No extensions, including Black Friday.

Acquisition cost and return on ad spend

Twelve months, October 2025 to September 2026. Switch between the two measures.

$70 ceiling we agreed in March

Who comes back

Share of each month's new customers who have ordered again, by months since their first order.

Point at or tap a cell to read it.

Black Friday buyers come back least

November's customers reordered 11.8% within two months, against 15.1% for October's. Discount-led buyers are worth less, so Q4 targets reflect that.

July is the best start yet

19.4% of July's customers ordered again within two months, against 16.9% for June's. July's group was the first to get the care-guide emails.

Creative tests

Three split tests ran in Q3 with equal budgets for each version. Pick a test to compare.

Q4 plan: the road to Black Friday

Five phases from 12 October to New Year's Eve. Select a phase for its budget, offer and goal.

Where the Q4 budget goes

$1.85M across four paid channels. Move a slider to shift money between them; the total stays the same.

Projected Q4 revenue from paid media

$5.73M

Blended ROAS3.10
Q3 actual$3.21M at 2.65 ROAS

Each channel's returns shrink as spend rises, using response curves fitted to the last 18 months.

What we need from you, and what happens next

Four decisions keep the Black Friday plan on schedule.

From Hearth & Field 0 of 4 agreed

    From Northpaw

    1. Book 12 creators for Q4 videosTom Okafor
    2. Black Friday pacing dashboard, updated dailySana Iqbal
    3. Weekly check-ins through Cyber Monday, Thursdays at 10:00Leila Haddad

    Next review: 14 January 2027. We'll bring the full Black Friday readout and a 2027 plan.